Weather Patterns Intensifying Amid Converging Factors
The historic El Niño event has officially come to an end, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reports. After a year of pushing global temperatures to record-breaking levels, the 2023-2024 El Niño has transformed into its opposing weather pattern, La Niña, which is predicted to emerge in late 2024.
What is El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. La Niña, on the other hand, is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and is associated with flooding and droughts.
La Niña Expected to Develop
"The average sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific during April 2024 were below normal. This indicates the transition to La Niña is underway," the Climate Prediction Center report states. "La Niña is likely to develop during June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance)."
According to U.S. meteorologists, La Niña events tend to follow strong El Niño events.
Climate Change at Play
El Niño is marked by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, where a significant amount of heat is released into the atmosphere. This is why El Niño years are typically warmer than average. Combined with the warming caused by greenhouse gasses from burning fossil fuels, 2023 tied for the hottest year on record.
Scientists argue that this is a clear warning that the combination of climate change and El Niño could lead to even more severe heat waves, floods, and droughts in the future.
Shift to La Niña Does Not Guarantee Lower Temperatures
The demise of El Niño does not necessarily mean that 2024 will break the recent streak of record-breaking temperatures, with eight consecutive years holding the hottest-on-record title.
"Even if we transition to La Niña, global temperatures are not going to cool all that much for the rest of this year," said NOAA climate scientist Tom DiLiberto. "2024 is still expected to be one of the top five warmest years on record."
Potential Impacts of La Niña 2024
Meteorologists note that El Niño and La Niña patterns are natural oscillations that can also affect precipitation patterns worldwide. In the southwestern United States, El Niño years are typically wetter, while La Niña years are drier, exacerbating drought conditions.
The current shift to La Niña could make the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season more severe. Ocean temperatures there are already warm, which could contribute to more storm development.
Experts Forecast "Severe" Conditions in Vietnam
In Vietnam, meteorological experts predict that the weather in late 2024 will be "severe" due to the emergence of La Niña.
"We predict that the atmospheric state when transitioning from El Niño to La Niña (from the warm phase to the cold phase), combined with climate change, will continue to have an impact, leading to increased extreme weather events," said Hoang Duc Cuong, Deputy Director General of the General Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. "Therefore, the second half of 2024 will see more complex weather events, including heat, drought, hailstorms, and rain showers."
Cuong added that between now and the end of the year, there will be approximately 11-13 storms in the East Sea, with 5-7 of them making landfall. During the first half of the storm season, natural disasters will be concentrated in the North and Central Highlands, while the central region will experience heavy rains, storms, and flooding in the second half of 2024.