New Research Predicts Warmer, Drier Conditions
A new study led by the University of Leeds, UK, predicts that the hotter, drier conditions brought on by climate change will reduce the number of areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onwards.
Published today (9 May) in the journal Science, the research will improve understanding of where malaria transmission is likely to become less common, and where it is likely to increase.
"As our understanding of how water flows across the landscape improves, we are getting closer to being able to target interventions to prevent malaria outbreaks, especially in areas where healthcare resources are already stretched," said lead author Dr. Mark Smith from the School of Geography at Leeds.
Co-author Professor Chris Thomas from the University of Lincoln added: "A key insight from this study is that malaria isn't just a disease of stagnant water left by rainfall—it is also common in the floodplains of major rivers and in the seasonally dry grasslands that characterize much of Africa."
"Another novel aspect of our new model is the inclusion of how the length of the rainy season is changing under climate change, which can have a major impact on infectious diseases."
Co-author Professor Simon Gosling, who specializes in climate risk and environmental modeling at the University of Nottingham, said: "This new research shows the complex ways in which surface water drives malaria transmission risk across Africa."
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were an estimated 608,000 malaria deaths in 2022, with 95% of these occurring in Africa.
In recent years, heavy rainfall and flooding in several African countries have created large areas of standing water, providing breeding grounds for malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
The WHO's 2022 World Malaria Report included a dedicated chapter on malaria and climate change for the first time, recognizing it as an increasing threat.
Summary
- A new study predicts that climate change will reduce the number of areas suitable for malaria transmission in Africa from 2025 onwards.
- The research will improve understanding of where malaria transmission is likely to become less common, and where it is likely to increase.
- The study highlights the importance of considering how the length of the rainy season is changing under climate change, as this can have a major impact on malaria transmission.